There’s Hope for Ben Revere After All

Over the last few weeks, much has been made about how Ben Revere has turned his season around. Since a terrible April during which he hovered around the Mendoza Line, the Phillies centerfielder has hit .346, good enough for seventh best in all of baseball. On top of that, he’s actually been getting better with each passing month (figure 1, through July 10).

Figure 1

	April	May	June	July	Total
AB	90	77	99	35	301
AVG	.200	.312	.354	.400	.302
OBP	.234	.361	.390	.400	.338
SLG	.222	.351	.414.	.514	.352
OPS	.456	.712	.804	.914	.621

 

A lot of Revere’s success can be attributed to sabermetric luck, something NBC10’s Dash Treyhorn and the 700 Level’s Andrew Unterberger have already hammered home. Regardless, I think a young player like Revere deserves props for rebounding the way he has. He is, after all, adjusting to a new team and a new league.

That being said, I’m not entirely sold on his prospects as the team’s starting center fielder moving forward. While I recognize and appreciate what he brings to the table (high-energy, great contact rates, speed, and, best of all, cost-effectiveness), I’m just not convinced a guy with so little power can be a viable starter in this league, especially when his fielding is as spotty as Revere’s has been.

When the Phillies first acquired Revere from the Minnesota Twins, he was sold to the fans as a scrappy speed player, someone who wouldn’t hit for power, but who would prove his value on the base paths and in the field. Basically, a younger, cheaper alternative to Michael Bourn, the player many in the baseball world expected would end up with the Phillies last offseason.

Fan reaction to the deal was mixed. Some liked the idea of getting younger, while others were upset the Phillies didn’t land a more established name, especially since the likes of Josh Hamilton, B.J. Upton, Bourn, Angel Pagan and former Philly fan favorite Shane Victorino were all on the market. Me? I was happy to trade Vance Worley and Trevor May at peak value, but was a bit weary of Revere’s offensive profile. Really though, I was just bummed we weren’t able to package those two pitchers and some other prospects to make the Jacoby Ellsbury rumors come true.

Over his first 300 at bats as a Phillie, Revere has delivered exactly the type of offense one could’ve hoped for, hitting at a .300 clip with an OPS approaching .700. Overall, his base running ability has been good, but less than expected. He’s not as fast out of the box as one would like (eight double play ground outs) and has only converted 72 percent of his stolen base attempts. To be fair, he has amassed 13 infield hits (eight from bunts), 21 stolen bases, and a 2.2 BsR (base running runs above average), which, to avoid confusion, places him as a top-tier base runner, just not at the elite level of an Ellsbury (8.6) or a Mike Trout (6.0).

So what’s the problem? Well, unfortunately, he hasn’t been the gold glove caliber player we were sold on. Every once in a while he registers a “Web Gem,” but defensive statistics places him below league average (see Fld in Figure 2). Even if you don’t buy into advanced metrics, the naked eye can tell you that he’s shown poor judgment at times, even for someone who played a lot of right field before coming to Philly, and has an underwhelming arm.

All that said, it’s hard to knock Ruben Amaro for taking a chance on the guy. He’s still just 25, and we certainly didn’t give up a lot for him. Plus, despite his flaws, he’s offered a lot more bang for his buck than all the free agents the fans were looking toward (figure 2), especially Upton and Pagan, the two players the Phillies supposedly put offers out to.

While his defense has been mediocre and he’s shown significantly less power than all of them (as evidenced by Isolated Power or ISO, which subtracts batting average from slugging percentage), he’s been the most productive base runner in the lot and has hit well enough to register an OPS better or in line with all the options excluding Victorino. And that’s all for a 20th of the cost of the next cheapest guy.

Figure 2

Player	Age	G	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	Fld	BsR	WAR	Salary
Revere	25	85	.302	.338	.352	.690	0.50	-1.4	2.2	0.9	$515K + 4 years of club control
Victorino	32	60	.288	.335	.408	.742	.120	14*	1.7	2.3	$39M /3 years
Upton	28	81	.178	.269	.305	.574	.126	2.1	0.3	-0.2	$75M / 5 years
Bourn	30	63	.284	.327	.360	.687	.077	5.6	1.6	1.6	$48M /4 years
Hamilton	32	85	.227	.288	.404	.691	.177	-1.6	1.6	0.4	$123M / 5 years
Pagan	32	46	.262	.314	.374	.688	.112	-2.9	2.5	0.5	$40M / 4 Years

 

*Victorino’s defensive numbers are skewed because he’s played in just 60 games, almost all of which have come in right field. However, in fairness, the lack of games does make his WAR and BsR look even more impressive than the rest of his competitors. Realistically, he’s probably been the best player of this bunch in the field, at the plate and on the bases.

Ultimately, I’m happy the team brought Revere in, and I know he has great value to this team, even if only as an extra man or rotational player. As a starter, his offense is OK, but only if he fulfills that promise of being a younger Bourn by proving to be an elite base runner and defender.

He showed signs he could be those things during his time with the Twins, so maybe he can begin to shake off these new-team/new-league/new outfield (he seems to be slow-adjusting to playing the ball off the wall in Citizen’s Bank Park as compared to Minnesota) growing pains. However, if he continues to be what he’s been this year, he’s going to be a bottom tier starter in the league, which just means the Phillies will have another hole to fill.

Either way, there’s something exciting about the unknown that comes with a young player, who, despite having nearly 1,300 at bats, is still very much a raw, developing entity. Considering the clunker free agents the Phillies avoided and the dearth of pitching depth the Phillies still have minus Worley and May, this trade has been a solid one for the Phillies. Here’s hoping it can ultimately be a bit more than that.

Frank Visco is a contributing writer to Philly Sports Jabronis.