Philly Sports Jabronis
Veteran second baseman should give club best chance to chase pennants.
Trying to calculate a Major Leaguer’s financial value is hardly an exact science. It’s literally impossible, in fact, except for those willing to attempt to put dollar vales on the sabermetric WAR (wins above replacement) statistic, for which the Phillies Chase Utley ranks second in 2013 among second basemen behind only Matt Carpenter in St. Louis (as of the new contract). Without a hard salary cap to conform to, it’s up to individual MLB teams to determine their own spending allowances based on a number of considerations, most namely being how close they’re willing to get to the luxury tax each year.
Another inexact science is trying to predict how successful a ballclub can be by “getting younger,” i.e. trading away aging, proven stars for the prospects of another’s farm system and/or refusing to sign players based on their older age and promoting one’s own minor leaguers.
Chase Utley
A much-debated topic in this, what has become a lost summer for the Phillies, has been whether or not the club should trade away and/or sit its aging stars including Utley, Ryan Howard, Cliff Lee, Carlos Ruiz and Jimmy Rollins. With the Phils extension of Utley’s contract on Aug. 8, an extension that could span as far as the 2018 season if Utley stays healthy enough and plays well enough, the focus on the team’s financial obligation to him has hit a crescendo. While an unscientific assumption would suggest that the overall reception of the deal from the fan base has been positive, there has certainly been at least a small contingency in Philadelphia that sees the re-signing as a mistake, mostly due to money owed and Utley’s age — with the focus here being on a knee problem often reported in the media to be “chronic” and “degenerative.”
While it will be at least two years before any of us can use the benefit of hindsight to evaluate this contract based on Utley’s performance, we’ll never really know what could have been had the Phillies opted to trade him to an undeterminable team or allowed him to walk after this season. What we can do, however, is look at the “success” the Phillies have had at the second base position in the two decades prior to Utley’s Philadelphia arrival in 2003 as well as the performances of those players (for purposes of this column ages 26 and younger, the same age that Utley was during his first full season of 2005) who have also taken the field during Utley’s career, whether that be due to an injury he sustained or simply a period of rest/platooning. The point here being that “getting younger” is not a be-all, end-all solution, particularly for an up-the-middle position. For those of you out there who are of the belief that “moving on” or “getting younger” is always the best alternative for a team with diminishing playoff chances, I hope you’re sitting down. Make no mistake, at the time of Utley’s call-up to the Bigs, the Phillies chose to do so for the sake of getting him promoted — not simply to get younger. There have been and will be very few “Utleys” in the Phillies farm system, so retaining him, even if his best years are behind him, was certainly a wise move.
First, for the sake of objectivity for the following analysis, it’s worth highlighting that, yes, Utley’s WAR has declined each year since peaking at 9.0 in 2008, the year he became a “F#@!ing World Champion” at 29 years old. What the results below also show, however, are that age is not a predetermination for one’s production declining or a decline in value based on WAR, which represents a numerical value of a player’s total contributions to their team derived from batting, fielding, baserunning and pitching. Here, we focus on the last five Phillies second basemen to compile at least two 100-game seasons in Philadelphia* since 1983 (two decades prior to Utley) and the general trajectory of each player’s WAR relative to age. We also make comparisons to the performances of those “younger” players who’ve played the position and their WAR during their age-26 season (again, to show that going young does not necessarily produce better value). We’ll also look at the last 10 World Series winners, the age of their regular second basemen and the players’ WAR.
*Note that we also include Placido Polanco, who’s played a couple of his 100-plus-game Phillies seasons during seasons in which he was traded to and from Philly during his baseball “prime.” Leaving him out of this article seemed unjustifiable, even if he also played third base at great lengths.
Going to WAR in Philadelphia With …
Polanco (2005-05; 2010-12), Marlon Anderson (1998-2002), Mariano Duncan (1992-95), Mickey Morandini (1990-97; 2000) and Juan Samuel (1983-89).
As strange as it may be, Anderson might actually be the best example from this group of how one’s playing ability doesn’t simply tank due to age, even if he’s the least-talented member of this group. A homegrown Phillie who played with the team in the majors from 1998-2002 (at ages 24-28), he posted his best career war in 2001 at age 27 (2.8) and only came close to that number two seasons later (2.4) after dipping to 1.2 in 2002. He would record the worst WAR of his career in 2004 after going unsigned by the Phils (yes, in part to make room for Utley) but in the next two years (his last two with at least 100 games played) he was up nearly two whole points during the ages of 31 and 32.
To that end, there’s Duncan, a player who didn’t join Philadelphia as a free agent until his age-29 season who also didn’t record his best WAR season until 1996 as a Yankee in his age-33 season (a respectable 2.7). A free agent signee prior to that season, Duncan, who would appear in 109 games, would help lead the team to a World Series championship and post the highest WAR of any Yankee player at the position that season, including multiple twenty-somethings. His WAR marked a dramatic increase from the combined -0.1 he posted the year prior with the Phillies and Reds (81 games). Yes, he was a year younger that year.
Similarly, Polanco was 31 at the time he posted his best WAR (6.1 in Detroit in 2007). His age didn’t scare the Phillies from reacquiring him for their World Series run. Not only was his best WAR season at age 31, that number marked a nearly 1.5 increase from his age-26 mark during his first full year in Philly (albeit playing second and third). In fact, two of his top three WAR seasons came after age 30 in Detroit (almost exclusively as a second baseman) and three of his top six came during the second half of his career. However, while his WAR did rise between ages 33 and 34, it has declined each year since.
Then, there’s Morandini, who after the 1997 season was traded for centerfielder Doug Glanville in what would have to be considered a good long-term move on just about all accounts. But the fact still remains that Morandini’s top WAR occurred the following year in Chicago at 3.8 (as did his highest average at .296), his age-32 season. He did dip lower each year of his career, however, retiring at the age of 34 after a brief reprise in Philadelphia. However, the 3.8 WAR he enjoyed in 1998 represented a full four-point upswing from what he produced two years prior at age 30.
Lastly, Samuel is the one guy from this lot whose age overwhelmingly coincided with a near-steady decline. A 15-year veteran who would play his first seven seasons as a Phillie, his WAR peaked at 3.7 as a 26-year-old and bottomed out after age 30, when he posted a 2.6 (a number that would stand to be his best year of production by far up until his retirement in 1998. The trade the Phillies pulled off for Samuel in 1989, getting Lenny Dykstra and Roger McDowell in return, was one of the best trades in club history. That can’t be denied, just as the theory that “getting younger means more productivity” is just that.
And Then There’s … The “Young” Guys
Here are the other Phillies who’ve played second base since the time that Samuel was considered the team’s primary player at the position through 2013 to date, as well as their WAR at age 26. Note that not every player was in Philly for their age-26 season. Number of games also noted.
Greg Legg (Year = 1986, WAR = 0.3, Games = 11)
**Tom Barrett (1988, 0.0, 36)
Tom Herr (1982, 3.7, 135)
Randy Ready (1986, -0.3, 24)
Wally Backman (1986, 3.2, 124)
Steve Scarsone (1992, -0.2, 18)
**David Doster (1996, 0.1, 39)
Mark Lewis (1996, -0.4, 145)
P.J. Forbes (1998, 0.0, 9)
David Newhan (2000, 0.1, 14)
Thomas Perez (2000, -1.0, 45)
**Felipe Crespo (1998, 0.1, 66)
Nick Punto (2004, 0.4, 38)
Matt Kata (2004, 0.5, 42)
Joe Thurston (2006, -0.1, 18)
**Tadahito Iguchi (2005, 2.8, 135)
Brad Harman (2008, -0.2, 6)
Eric Bruntlett (2004, 0.8, 45)
** Freddy Galvis (2012, 0.6, 58)
Pete Orr (2005, 0.6, 112)
**Cesar Hernandez (2013, -0.3, 9)
Mike Fontenot (2005, 0.1, 7)
**Players that did not play major League ball during their age-26 seasons. Their next-youngest age was used.
Ages and Respective WAR of Second Baseman on World Series Winners Since 2003
2003: Florida Marlins — Luis Castillo (age 27, WAR 4.4)
2004: Boston Red Sox — Mark Bellhorn (29, 3.7)
2005: Chicago White Sox — Iguchi (30, 2.8)
2006: St. Louis Cardinals — Aaron Miles (29, -0.2)
2007: Boston red Sox — Dustin Pedroia (23, 3.9)
2008: Phillies — Utley (29, 9.0)
2009: New York Yankees — Robinson Cano (26, 4.5)
2010: San Francisco Giants — Freddy Sánchez (32, 1.6)
2011: St. Louis Cardinals — Skip Schumaker (31, 0.7)
2012: San Francisco Giants — Ryan Theriot (32, -0.3)
Notice how nobody younger than Utley is even remotely close? He really is “the man.” And the right man to continue to play second in Philadelphia.
Joe Darrah is co-editor of Philly Sports Jabronis.
