Jabroni Joe’s 2013 NFL Rankings

Attempting to preseason rank NFL teams is only challenging until you get into justifying why you’re ranking teams in a particular order. A fun task, but a humbling one nonetheless. Here’s my crack at breaking down where teams stand as we set to kickoff NFL 2013. If I’m wrong on anything here, and I surely will be, I’m pleading the fifth. Or blaming the economy … yeah, that’s it. Enjoy, and please debate if inclined.

1) Denver Broncos – First, let’s acknowledge what Denver has working against it as the season opens: Its running game has no clear feature back and its defense will be without one of the league’s best young linebackers in Von Miller for four games. And that’s about it. Despite questions at RB, which could be cleared up rather quickly if rookie Montee Ball lives up to the hype, the offense will be ridiculously explosive. Peyton Manning’s weaponry is further boosted by the arrival of Wes Welker and the backfield may actually be exciting as a three-headed competition between Ronnie Hillman and Knowshon Moreno, who is basically playing for career relevancy at this point. Yes, the D has also lost Elvis Dumervil, but the sour taste from last year’s mishap against Baltimore in the playoffs should be enough to feed a collective hunger. When the “cold” Super Bowl makes its way up the East Coast this winter, this team won’t be bothered by the temps.

2) Green Bay Packers – When you have the game’s top quarterback, and in Aaron Rodgers Green Bay does, you’re almost certainly going to be in the Super Bowl conversation. When you finally appear to have a respectable running attack to complement him, your odds increase. And when you tie a bow around that with a defense that is certainly closer to the league’s elite than the inferior, well, you almost get a virtual ticket to February. Almost. The Pack will once again be electrifying in 2013. Rodgers has the talent to make any receiver better, and he’ll prove it this year when Randall Cobb becomes more accustomed to the Lambo Leap and Greg Jennings sinks into relative insignificance in Minnesota. Rodgers and his offense will also make the defense a better unit by eating game clock and giving the opportunity to play the field-position game. Playing in the NFC Central, arguably the league’s best in this time of parity, may be the greatest roadblock to the Super Bowl as a tough schedule could mean an unfavorable postseason seed and longer odds at reaching Super Bowl XLVII.

3) San Francisco 49ers – Yes, the Super Bowl “hangover” is real, and that will certainly be challenge for Jim Harbaugh’s squad to overcome as it plays from week to week with the tendency to look ahead and get lost in the importance of now or simply experience the physical and emotional fatigue that a shorter offseason brings, but if newcomer Anquan Boldin can lead by example on and off the field when it really matters as he did for champion Baltimore in 2012 and Frank Gore has enough gas in the tank to anchor a run game that can help new sensation Colin Kaepernick balance the loss of developing downfield threat Michael Crabtree – this sentence may be more exhausting than the actual letdown of losing the Bowl is. The league’s other “arguable” toughest division (see also NFC Central) will also play a factor in this team’s chances; however, is anyone better to have at the helm in this situation than Harbaugh? I think not. When the Niners square up against Denver in February, and Joe Montana and John Elway are brought into the media limelight and are parading the sidelines, it will sort of feel like the matchup that those who grew up in the mid-80s to mid-90s never got. Sort of.

4) New Orleans Saints – Talk about a team with an agenda. From the returning head coach to the Hall of Fame-bound QB looking into the twilight of his career to a defensive unit that must be starving for a chance at redemption, the Saints have it all in them to make a run at another title. Yeah, they’ve got the talent too. Drew Brees will continue to gun slinging his way up and down the field with a receiving core that can stretch and a sure-hands team throughout the backfield and at tight end that will continue to give opposing defenses fits. With a defense that seemingly will only improve from a unit that allowed the second most points in 2012 as well as the league’s most yards, their 7-9 record will easily be reversed and then some. Welcome back to the playoffs, New Orleans!

5) New England Patriots – Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are looking to reinvent the wheel again in Foxborough, and if history has told us anything it has told us that things should work out for the Patriots to a mostly impressive degree. Though decimated to a point with the loss of PPR king Wes Welker and injury-plagued super TE Rob Gronkowski (as well as another TE we won’t mention by name here), the receiver corps has also seen a boost with the acquisition of former Ram Danny Amendola and the encouraging development of rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld. If Amendola, who’s as good as any possession receiver you can find when healthy, um, stays healthy, look for Brady to again make big names out of a wideout lot that is not currently considered big name. With a defense that makes up for its lack of “star power” the best way possible—by creating lots of turnovers, i.e. leading the AFC with 41 in 2012—and a running game that once again appears to be formidable enough to let Brady air it out, new England is and should remain among the league’s elite. Only Miami has a puncher’s chance of remotely challenging them in the AFC East. If “Gronk” returns healthy before the postseason and everything else remains copasetic, watch out.

6) Atlanta Falcons – Are the Falcons ready for the next step? Do they have a head coach and quarterback who can take that next step? Can the defense play a complete postseason game without jeopardizing the ability of their high-powered offense to take that next step? If the answers to all of these questions are “yes,” then get ready to see Atlanta in the Super Bowl. Problem is, it may not be possible to give affirmation to all these queries, especially when it comes to the defense. Despite allowing a league-low 14 touchdowns in 2012, the D struggled mightily in the playoffs, most notably by blowing a 17-0 cushion against San Fran in the NFC title game. Last year was this team’s best chance from a “comfort” standpoint. In 2013, QB Matt Ryan and head coach Mike Smith have entered the Donovan McNabb/Andy Reid territory of avoiding the “can these two win it all together” stigma. Losses on the offensive line will hurt even if the addition of running back Steven Jackson and DL Osi Umenyiora provide anticipated veteran “spunk.” The Saints are primed to be better in the NFC, as is Tampa Bay, which is in a “taking the next step” of its own phase and appears to be ready to take it.

7) Seattle Seahawks – The media darlings of 2013, Seattle has a lot going in its favor, beginning with a formidable defense that’s worth all the hype and a sparkplug at QB who might be worth all the hype. Russell Wilson is no-doubt-about it talented and as a Big 10 guy well versed in winning defensive-style football and managing the game offensively. Despite his past NFL failures, Pete Carroll is the perfect coach for this gritty, showtime-esque club. Marshawn Lynch is a beast. Expecting Wilson to replicate last season without a better group of receivers might be too tall an order, however.

8) Cincinnati Bengals – I will admit, Cincy may be ranked too low here. The defense is built to win now and the offense certainly has enough firepower (and youth at that) to make things interesting, but is anyone on this team truly elite beyond A.J. Green? Andy Daulton would automatically make a slew of teams around the league better simply by his poise and intelligence, but his struggles thus far in his postseason play are more related to physical skill. Can he become a deeper-threat QB with better long balls and forcing opposing defense’s hands to not key on Green? If he can’t, the Bengals won’t be more than an into-the-playoffs team, even if Giovani Bernard joins the elite club sooner than later.

9) New York Giants – And, yes, I may have the G-Men ranked too high here, but that’s what happens when you have an elite QB and the receiving/running weapons to aid your championship-caliber tools. The defense could still be a mess, but the NFC East is a virtual guessing game this year. And if I’m forcing myself to make an early guess at the best in this group, I’m going with Eli. And I’m going with Eli over any of the other “fringe” teams that follow.

10) Houston Texans – This team’s nucleus may have run its course. Matt Schaub is the prototypical guy who won’t lose much for you, but won’t win much for you at the same time. A good QB for sure, but the pieces around him (with apologies to Arian Foster, J.J. Watt and Andre Johnson) aren’t going to collectively elevate this team beyond what it is—an overall sound squad that will make the playoffs but won’t do much us without the advantage of a bye week and home field advantage. The division may be weak enough to collect the wins needed to be in the top-seeds conversation, but odds are that collective reality won’t play out to the Texans favor either. Coach Gary Kubiak’s once cushy seat is getting hot, and if the team doesn’t rally around him it may just be that it needs the philosophy of a new leader to excel further.

11) Chicago Bears – This team could just as easily be in the cellar as it could be in the Super Bowl. New head coach Marc Trestman has the pedigree and weapons to make the Bears a scary enough team if Jay Cutler remains consistent enough and Matt Forte remains healthy enough. Both are uncertainties to say the least. For this bears club, in this division, it might all come down to timing. If the offense clicks, there’s no grudges leftover from Lovie Smith’s dismissal and the defense can first and foremost get production out of Julius Peppers and his line to maintain a force in the pass rush, the limits are endless. But it all has to go right in a good division. A team at a major crossroads if a deep January run doesn’t happen.

12) Baltimore Ravens – GM Ozzie Newsome gets the benefit of the doubt here when he stares down the loss of the franchises two best defensive players by blowing up the offense by trading the newly-rich quarterback’s safety net and its emotional leader. Joe Flacco’s honeymoon in Disney Land is long over and his credibility is being put to the test in a major way. The addition of Elvis Dumervil helps in a big way the loss of Ed Reed and Ray Lewis, as does Newsome’s penchant for masterminding drafts. But this team likely needs a year of face-slapping reality to know that you need more offensive weaponry to make a run at a repeat NFL title, even if you’re bringing back one of the game’s true workhorse backs in Ray Rice and can play the “blame game” if needed with the loss of TE Dennis Pitta.

13) Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck is a bona fide star and most likely wins at least one Super Bowl, in Indy mind you, before his career is over. Just, not this season. Ahmad Bradshaw will tantalize his team and his city with explosiveness followed by injury and inactivity and there are no imposing pieces in place to help Luck fully exploit his depth at WR. This team will once again thrill until it’s last game, quite possibly again in the postseason, and Luck will pull out more miracles for sure, but the emotional high of last season’s Chuck Pagano’s inspirational uplifting will be tough to replicate for a team that played beyond its years all the way around. Future is certainly among the best, though.

14) St. Louis Rams – For Sam Bradford, the NFC West division got suddenly ridiculous at just the worst time for him. However, the presence of Jeff Fisher and the high-octane offense at his disposal offers him enough to finally maximize his potential. This is not a make-or-break year per se, if Bradford again keeps this team in games against the league’s premier talent, so temper expectations. A wild card appearance isn’t out of the question, but the more likely scenario is just a minimal improvement record-wise and not as good of a showing against intra-division foes a la 2012.

15) Dallas Cowboys – At least until November, expect this team to look like a Super Bowl threat. Then, all bets are off. It will take both Tony Romo and Dez Bryant to remain ultra-focused through the duration for this team to be anything other than a blip on the radar. The former has to prove he’s not just a statistical wet dream and the latter has to prove he’s grown up enough to live and thrive in the limelight. Jason Garrett probably isn’t the guy to maximize both of these guys’ apparent strengths. Can anyone say lame duck?

16) Washington Redskins – RGIII is the real deal, but, contrary to popular thought in Washington, he’s not Superman. The redskins may learn that the hard way. His talent and the NFC East as a whole make it appealing to rush him back from a devastating knee injury that occurred (in part) due to organizational delusional thoughts, but when you’ve got a capable backup QB and a strong running game to justify easing him back and you don’t do it — you risk ending up in obscurity. Give the kid credit for owning the locker room and being a warrior, yes, but I won’t put enough faith in the powers that be here to list them higher than this.

17) Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Kind of feels like we’ve been saying this for years, but “this could be the Bucs’ year.” What does that mean, exactly? I don’t know. But the team will again be exciting offensively, if still frustrating at times. A playoff appearance is not out of the realm of thought, but many teams can say that around here. We will soon find out if Josh Freeman is going to get another lifeline. Oh, boy. There goes an old cliché.

18) San Diego Chargers – The absence of Norv Turner from this club may be enough to see it pull a 180, if the mentality of Phillip Rivers hardens along with that of RB Ryan Matthews’ bone density. If the defense mimics its habit of creating takeaways and adds its own instant offense again from 2012, the Chargers could be scary. That may be too premature though. This team needs a bruising tailback and the injuries suffered in the receiving game lately aren’t going to help Rivers’ psyche.

19) Pittsburgh Steelers – Ben Roethlisberger needs to pull a Tom Brady and reinvigorate the fate of this franchise without a steady running attack and without an on-paper frightening receiver group. Not saying that can’t happen, but expecting it this year (at least to the point of serious title contention) isn’t a safe bet. That’s not to mention the absence of the typical; dominating Steeler defense. To make the most of what he’s got to work with now, Big Ben will need to get away from what he does best, and that’s play fearless football. And whenever you ask someone like him to avoid what’s made him and his team so successful, the results can vary. A playoff appearance would work wonders for the building of another run, but how long will Roethlisberger hold up looking down that road?

20) Detroit Lions – If you’re a sports fan in general, you have to be hoping the Lions can stop wasting the career of Calvin Johnson, who’s not only one of the best at his position in the game’s history but also has one of the greatest nicknames of any human ever. With Reggie Bush, the running game gets a nice spark, but it still could be messy back there. Matt Stafford has to overcome that. And his other receivers (and tight ends for that matter) need to do him and Megatron some justice and hold onto the ball when they get the chance to make plays. In another division, this team elevates to higher grounds. Too bad it’s not fantasy football here.

21) Minnesota Vikings – All Day AP is going to be tasked with another football miracle if this team is even going to have a remote chance at getting back to the playoffs, and here’s saying that they won’t. Adrian Peterson is not Jesus, and I’m sorry this team is just not that good without a holy performance like his of last year. The addition of Greg Jennings is nice, but his character flaws won’t be the right piece. This team’s going to find itself in the purgatory of not being bad enough.

22) Miami Dolphins – If the Dolphins are willing to not accelerate their expectations, 2013 can be a nice building year for them. We’re going to find out if Ryan Tannehill is really worthy of his team’s willingness to pursue top-flight receiving help or if he’s just part of the carousel in the search of the team’s next franchise QB. This team is the definition of mediocrity, but if the running game holds up with the addition of Lamar Miller and Tannehill at least makes progress, the pendulum could start to swing in Miami’s favor as the next team to challenge New England for division supremacy.

23) Philadelphia Eagles – Yes, there’s real potential with one of the game’s most innovative head coaches. But there’d be more potential if the talent level handed over to him wasn’t a scrapheap. Other than Shady McCoy, there’s little that Chip Kelly can hang his visor on in terms of reliable commodities for an offense he expects to be fluid when accounting for the loss of Jeremy Maclin. DeSean Jackson and Michael Vick are bound to dive the coach and the fans crazy again, and that could be child’s play compared to what the defense could look like, but the team is a few years away.

24) Arizona Cardinals – Carson Palmer’s last dance starts now. If he stays healthy, I think the dance can be one of those long ones, but he needs to stay healthy and this team needs a running back before he turns to a geriatric. The time just isn’t right to expect anymore than that and a shoot ‘em out offensive battle each week with this team, which should give the playmaking defense the chance to make plays. The QB crisis in the desert could be over, if the line can keep Palmer unwrinkled.

25) Kansas City Chiefs – Andy Reid will probably do great things with this team … eventually. I just can’t see them in the playoffs from a 2-14 slate. If Jamaal Charles plays double-digit games they will make things interesting, but expecting this team to make a January run is more of a national fantasy for some of Reid’s media cheerleaders. The guy’s a good coach, but he has his warts. And unless he abandons them all the Chiefs aren’t climbing to the top of the league overnight.

26) Tennessee Titans – With all due respect, this might be the blandest team in the NFL. There’s just nothing to get really excited about and nothing to make you think they will be bad enough to be entertaining about it. All the rage is that Chris Johnson has been rejuvenated, and if that’s the case they’ll be on the plus side of .500. That’s all I’ve got.

27) Cleveland Browns – If the offense had as much going for it on its side of the ball as the defense, I’d pull them out of the cellar here. But they don’t, and a suspension to Josh Gordon could limit any progress QB Brandon Weeden seemed to make in the offseason. Trent Richardson gives hope … hope that the offense can stay in the game enough to feed him the ball more.

28) Carolina Panthers – It might be unfair to drop this team down given the relative early success cam Newton has had and the promise he’s shown in his young career, but I just don’t know who else they’re better than realistically. And since he’s been around a few years longer than some of the other QBs around him and because I expect this team to drop another notch partly, I don’t see their “power” value. A rather blah team with a lot to be desired and I don’t know that Newton makes people around him better.

29) Buffalo Bills – At least EJ Manuel “won” the QB “competition.” And then there’s CJ Spiller to ignite some optimism. The team has it offensive core. Next year could be fun.

30) Jacksonville Jaguars – This team just has to be so bored of losing that it leads to a few wins. Blain Gabbert is likely auditioning for a backup role somewhere, and Maurice Jones Drew gets one shot at redemption. But I’d take Cecil Shorts on my team any day of the week! Poor guy.

31) New York Jets – If this were the circus rankings the Jets would be No. 1. When this team’s defense isn’t even inspiring, what’s there to say? “Woof” about sums it up. I mean even the running game could be gross. Geno Smith better go to church, and it would be nice to see Rex Ryan get a chance to rebuild or head coach elsewhere if he doesn’t go off a public relations deep end.

32) Oakland Raiders – As a Penn State alum, all I want to say is congratulations to matt McGloin. Seriously. The kid is an inspiration, and I hope his NFL career is a long and successful one, regardless of the capacity he plays in. The Raiders get a real character guy in this rookie, something they really need. Onward and upward, guys. Oh, and Go State!