Philly Sports Jabronis
The Philly Sports Jabronis introduced our Survivor Football Manifesto in 2015 after Joe D and Carlos, after years of comparing notes and strategies on how to “survive” a weekly NFL one-team pick-em pool, sketched out a risk roadmap to utilize week to week.
Things change over time, however. The NFL has changed, most notably in the way that schedules are constructed.
And with the passing of time, it might be time to reinvent the long-held Manifesto. Maybe.
So, for 2023 we will be taking a more critical look at the results that the Manifesto produces week to week in addition to laying out the wight of risk week to week when disecting the schedule for Survivor picking.
Survive!
Week 18: The last week of the regular (and survivor) season is a great time to reaffirm that a major contributing factor to select a winner each week hinges on a risk assessment that takes teams’ motivational factors and emotional elements into great account. That said, there are only three NFL games in the final weekend that do not have any playoff implications whatsoever (Cleveland vs. Cincy, New England vs. the Jets, and Kansas City vs. the Chargers).
Coming close to that criteria is the Raiders vs. Broncos, with Denver possibly impacting the fate of the Steelers if Pittsburgh falls to Baltimore on Saturday night. Yet, the Raiders have lots to play for assuming the players are buying into their new coach as much as it seems apparent.
With all other games in play, and taking a realistic look at who could realistically be left in the Survivor stables, New Orleans and Tampa look good in the NFC South parings, as does Green Bay and Detroit in the North. Nobody is as angry as the Lions this week.
Survive!
Week 17: Desperate times call for desperate measures. And at this point, we are looking at selecting teams that are desperate for potential playoff positioning. The packers are on the road Sunday night, but catching the Vikings during an ongoing QB shuffle. Highly attractive if they are available to you, as are the Bucs. The Broncos could have new life with their surprising QB switch, and if you have not yet jumped on the red-hot Rams – what are you waiting for?
Survive!
Week 16: Tampa Bay is red hot to keep rolling at home versus the Jags and their “questionable” quarterback situation, and the Packers seem (sort of) healthy enough to win in Carolina. If you happen to still have the option of Philadelphia, the Eagles need a win in a way that few other teams can ever know.
Survive!
Week 15: Following a trend this season, the bye week doesn’t offer many favors. Washington returns to visit the Rams and Arizona hosts the 49ers. No thanks.
As scary as it is to say, the focus is best on two NFC South teams that are tough to trust for consistency – New Orleans hosting the Giants and, to a lesser degree, Atlanta visiting Carolina. This is, of course, assuming that there are few options remaining for survivalists.
Survive!
Week 14: We get a nice opportunity with teh Ravens coming off the bye to host a rams team that has to deal with the travel and playing 1 pm on the East Coast. There is a new energy surrounding the Bengals, a team hosting the Colts, currently, as well as the Packers visiting the Giants on Monday night. The Dolphins also host Monday night versus the Titans and look like a viable play.
Survive!
Week 13: We are going to find out how real the Detroit Lions are. A loss on Thanksgiving to the Packers and struggling to win a close game against the Bears before that has us feeling like this team hasn’t won in a while after threatening to contend for the No. 1 seed in the NFC most of the season.
Visiting a hampered and inconsistent New Orleans team should be a game this team can win. With our last big bye week of the season upon us, it is difficult to find many lower-risk scenarios. However, the Jaguars at home, with the way they’ve been playing as of late, on Monday night versus Cincy is one such play.
Survive!
Week 12: Taking home teams on Thanksgiving is usually (pardon the pun) a recipe for success. The Steelers visiting a now troubled Bengals team without Joe Burrow presents a worthy opportunity, as do the Titans at home against a Carolina team that just can’t get its act together.
Survive!
Week 11: For some survivalists, last week presented what had to be one of the most difficult losses in Survivor Football memory. The Bills losing on Monday Night Football, in the fashion that they did, was demoralizing. The good news for those who have not utilized them, however, is that this week might be the surest of week’s to take them or any other team the rest of the way. This is a desperate team for sure, and one that might still prove to be of elite status before the year is over. Locker room concerns are troubling, but it’s tough to find a desperate team that’s this good (we think) this late, and at home. Even against a Jets team that battles – don’t be too afraid of Buffalo.
The Dolphins coming off a bye at home versus the Raiders are also juicy, as is Washington hosting the hapless Giants and the Cowboys visiting Carolina.
Should you have the Niners available, it’s time to trust them again (don’t keep saving them). An outlier choice would be Minnesota at Denver on Sunday night. The Vikings feel like the right team to burst Denver’s mini-bubble right now.
Survive!
Week 10: For this week’s action, listen to our podcast here.
Week 9: This very may well could be the toughest week to pick a Survivor team in the history of the Manifesto. We are generally advised to try to avoid picking the Thursday night game and any road team on Monday nights, but both the Steelers (at home versus Tennessee on Thursday) and the Chargers (at New York Jets) on Monday are in serious consideration. Then there’s New Orleans hosting Chicago. Hold your breath and tell yourself that there might not be any better week than to trust the Saints.
Oh, and don’t go with the Philadelphia Eagles this week if your agenda is to avoid teams based on risk. See above for less riskier options. If your agenda at this point is to simply take the best team on paper available to you, then, gulp, Cincy going up against the Bills looks less risky.
Survive!
Week 8: This week’s podcast was recorded live at John Henry’s Pub of Ardmore. Among the top suggestions were the Dolphins, Charges and Bengals. Come out to see our shows for live coverage!
Week 7: For this week’s action, listen to our podcast here.
Week 6: For this week’s action, listen to our podcast here.
Week 5: For this week’s action, listen to our podcast here.
Week 4: True to form, the toughest stretch of the Survivor season continues. Injuries and international games are among the myraid of challenges that exist when attempting to dissect where we can reduce the most risk.
Let’s start in London. The Manifesto has long suggested that we avoid these games due to the impact of travel and other drawbacks.
Many times when we get to this point, we are looking to try to take advantage of picking against teams that might unfortunately have more injuries than others, those that might be up against a travel within the confines of the US that are also difficult to work into their routines, and those teams that might be catching an opponent in a good spot based on their game result from last week.
To that end, the undefeated 49ers hosting the Arizona Cardinals sets up as a nice play. Typically, an intra-division matchup with an undefeated team involved could spell trouble – but in this case the Cards are seemingly due for a letdown after their big win versus Dallas last week.
The Chargers are also worth considering at home versus the Raiders, but there are some injuries to consider in the Bolts’ offense. With Jimmy G out for Vegas, however, the Chargers get a boost in consideration if the Raiders go to a rookie QB making his first start in
Wow tough week for survivor football. Right now I think I’m looking San Fran at home vs Cards, but also like the Chargers if Raiders start their rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. Picking against a rookie QB in his first start tends to work out well. If the Raiders go with Brian Hoyer, well he has come off the bench before to participate in shootouts. Beware of that.
Carolina is going back to its struggling rookie QB hosting the Vikings, and if Minnesota was the home team here, this might feel like a strong play because the Vikings are desperate. But suggesting a Kirk Cousins team has burned many before, up to and including Week 1 of this season.
It would be nice to feel confident about taking the Steelers in Houston or those Cowboys hosting New England, but alas.
And relying on the fallback option of choosing the home prime time Sunday or Monday team can’t sit well for either NY team this week.
For those who stuck their necks out to take the Lions in Green Bay on Thursday night, congrats. But the Manifesto is not yet at a point where leaning towards Thursdays games is advised. But we are getting closer to that as the weeks tick by.
Survive!
Week 3: We have entered the toughest part of the Survivor Schedule, leading up to bye weeks. For thoughts on our risk assessment and favorite picks this week, listen to our most recent podcast here.
Survive!
Week 2: As far as the Manifesto is concerned, Week 2 is the easiest week of Survivor – because the options are typically clear and brief.
We want to take a team that we just can’t see going 0-2. Home game or on the road.
Looking at the slate, it looks like it’s Bills or Chiefs to offer the least risk. If the Bills are serious about the Super Bowl, they simply can’t lose to the Raiders at home – and Vegas is coming off a win where the Raiders might be smelling themselves a bit as well. Even better for these purposes.
KC visiting the Jags feels like more of a risk, and it might be. But not sure that matters enough for the Jags to win.
To a certain degree the Bengals hosting the Ravens is intriguing, as is the Steelers at home versus the Browns on Monday night. Division games might be a tougher risk-reward balance, however.
Bills feel like a frontrunner here, but there are reasons to like these other teams as well.
And for a little Manifesto scorekeeping, home teams managed only six wins in Week 1. Yikes. At least Baltimore as the lowest-risk team did what it was supposed to do.
Survive!
Week 1: There still remains at least one constant that should hold up this week for the Manifesto: When it comes to making a Week 1 selection, the only path to take is one in which you’re selecting a home team. Even with parity what it is today, it is too risky to select a road team in Week 1. Football might be the ultimate “team” game. But it is also the ultimate “emotional” game. And there’s a lot of emotion flying high particularly among teams that open at home Week 1.
So, moving forward:
1. Cut the schedule in half, and pick a home team.
Here’s that list:
Chiefs (vs. Lions)
Falcons (vs. Panthers)
Ravens (vs. Texans)
Browns (vs. Bengals)
Colts (vs. Jaguars)
Vikings (vs. Buccaneers)
Saints (vs. Titans)
Steelers (vs. 49ers)
Commanders (vs. Cardinals)
Bears (vs. Packers)
Broncos (vs. Raiders)
Chargers (vs. Dolphins)
Patriots (vs. Eagles)
Seahawks (vs. Rams)
Giants (vs. Cowboys)
Jets (vs. Bills)
2. Ideally, take a team that is expected (from an objective consensus standpoint) to be a playoff team. Note that this says without saying it, that you should not “save” a certain team or teams specifically for future weeks. You can’t play in Week 2 if you don’t win Week 1 (unless of course you are in a buy-back league, which really isn’t Survivor Football if we are being honest.
That said, the Manifesto guides us toward a few specific squads as our options grow smaller:
Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Chargers, Seahawks, Giants
Of this group, the Ravens and Vikings stand out. Want to know why? Listen to our podcast here.
